Chung khoan: Phan tich ky thuat co huu dung tai Viet Nam?.

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Chung khoan: Phan tich ky thuat co huu dung tai Viet Nam?

Phan tich ky thuat (technical analysis) la phuong phap phan tich dua vao cac mau hinh do thi va cac chi so ky thuat trong qua khu de xac dinh xu huong gia, nhung diem gia dao chieu, va nhung “moc gia tam ly” quan trong cua thi truong, tu do dua ra nhung chien luoc giao dich phu hop..

Chung khoan: Phan tich ky thuat co huu dung tai Viet Nam? - Ban co dau.
Chung khoan: Phan tich ky thuat co huu dung tai Viet Nam? - Ban khong dau.
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Chung khoan: Phan tich ky thuat co huu dung tai Viet Nam?.

Chung khoan: Phan tich ky thuat co huu dung tai Viet Nam?.

Day la phuong phap phan tich  rat duoc ua thich tren cac thi truong  tai chinh the gioi, va trong vai nam tro lai day da tro thanh mot moi quan tam cua gioi dau tu  tai chinh  o Viet Nam.

Tai sao phan tich  ky thuat  co the hieu qua tai Viet Nam?

Tuy nhien, nhieu nha dau tu  tim hieu ve phan tich  ky thuat  da cho rang cong cu nay khong hieu qua tai Viet Nam  luc nay vi thi truong  con qua moi, it ai ap dung. Cac tin hieu do cong cu phan tich  ky thuat  dua ra se khong duoc tan dung, vi vay se khong tao ra hieu ung gia “chay” theo tin hieu, ket qua la khong tao ra cac xu huong (trend) gia, von la mot dieu can ban de nha dau tu  dua vao phan tich  ky thuat  giao dich  kiem loi.

That ra, viec con it nguoi van dung phan tich  ky thuat  se la mot dieu thuan loi cho nhung nguoi hieu biet sau ve cong cu nay kiem loi nhuan vuot troi so voi nguoi khong biet. Dieu nay lien quan den nguyen nhan: cac xu huong gia van ton tai, va se duoc phan anh tot boi phan tich ky thuat  cho du khong co nhieu nguoi ap dung.

Thi truong luon ton tai nhung trang thai tam ly goi la “neo”, “bao thu” va “mau hinh chuan”. Cac trang thai tam ly “neo” va “bao thu”, noi don gian la nha dau tu  it co xu huong thay doi quan diem  cua minh ve thi truong, ve tung loai co phieu, ve cac muc gia ma ho cho la “hop ly” mot cach nhanh chong.

Nhu vay, bat chap nha dau tu  co biet gi ve phan tich ky thuat  hay khong, du ho co biet the nao la “duong xu huong”, “muc chong do”, “muc khang cu” hay khong, thi nhung xu huong va muc gia quan trong  do van da ton tai trong quyet dinh  dau tu  cua ho, va phan tich ky thuat  phan anh duoc nhung dieu do. Dieu nay giup nha phan tich ky thuat  co loi the hon.

Con trang thai tam ly “mau hinh chuan” la trong nhieu truong hop, nha dau tu  luon giu trong minh nhung “quy tac kinh dien trong dau tu”, nghia la khi o trong tinh huong dac biet A, thi nen hanh dong  kieu B la tot nhat. Nhu vay, du nha dau tu khong tin rang phan tich  ky thuat  la dung, trong rat nhieu truong hop ho van se lap lai hanh vi “chuan” cua minh trong qua khu.

Tam ly mau hinh chuan nay thuong duoc ho tro boi tam ly “tu tin thai qua”, tuc nhung gi minh lam trong qua khu la hop ly thi bay gio cung vay, vi minh la nha dau tu  “tren trung binh” (mot nghien cuu  tai chinh  hanh vi chung minh rang da so nha dau tu  deu thich nghi minh la “nha dau tu  tren trung binh”, hon la nghi minh la “nha dau tu  kem coi”).

Vi du, khi nha dau tu  tin rang do la va chung khoan  the gioi  se giam gia, ho mua vang vi do la “diem den an toan”, va do la hanh dong  “chuan” thuong dien ra trong qua khu.

Nghia la vo tinh, du ho “cam ghet” phan tich ky thuat, khong dung phan tich  ky thuat, thi quan diem  can ban cua phan tich ky thuat  lai duoc cung co bang hanh vi dau tu  cua cac nha dau tu ay!

Va the la nha phan tich  ky thuat  cu the ma nhin lai mau hinh giao dich  cua thi truong trong qua khu (phan anh qua dien bien mau hinh do thi gia va chi so ky thuat) ma giao dich  cho hien tai de kiem loi.
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Updated: 24/05/2008 | Views: 674 | Comments: 0

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